Estimation of regionalized phenomena by geostatistical methods: lake acidity on the Canadian Shield

Present address: Lafarge Canada, Corporate Technical Services, 6150 ave. Royalmount, Montréal, Québec, Canada H4P 2R3 Abstract This paper describes a geostatistical technique based on conditional simulations to assess confidence intervals of local estimates of lake pH values on the Canadian Shield. This geostatistical approach has been developed to deal with the estimation of phenomena with a spatial autocorrelation structure among observations. It uses the autocorrelation structure to derive minimum-variance unbiased estimates for points that have not been measured, or to estimate average values for new surfaces. A survey for lake water chemistry has been conducted by the Ministère de l’Environnement du Québec between 1986 and 1990, to assess surface water quality and delineate the areas affected by acid precipitation on the southern Canadian Shield in Québec. The spatial structure of lake pH was modeled using two nested spherical variogram models, with ranges of 20 km and 250 km, accounting respectively for 20% and 55% of the spatial variation, plus a random component accounting for 25%. The pH data have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations that produce plausible realizations of a given random function model, while ‘honoring’ the experimental values (i.e., the real data points are among the simulated data), and that correspond to the same underlying variogram model. Post-processing of a large number of these simulations, that are equally likely to occur, enables the estimation of mean pH values, the proportion of affected lakes (lakes with pH^5.5), and the potential error of these parameters within small regions (100 km!100 km). The method provides a procedure to establish whether acid rain control programs will succeed in reducing acidity in surface waters, allowing one to consider small areas with particular physiographic features rather than large drainage basins with several sources of heterogeneity. This judgment on the reduction of surface water acidity will be possible only if the amount of uncertainty in the estimation of mean pH is properly quantified.